Last week was a quiet week on the data front, so once again it is This Fortnight in Data. With end of month we have the regular stats on credit and ADI stats which give an insight into macro borrowing and deposits in the Australian economy.
As ever, both of these are available to view on our free dashboard: https://app.qiinsights.com/
We also see the next edition on the new Monthly CPI data, Lending Indicators, Business Capex, and an early insight into Black Friday Sales data from NAB.
This Week in Data
RBA Credit Aggregates
Total Credit hit a new high in Oct22, at $3.48 Trillion, driven by increasing growth in business credit; currently at 15% annual growth, up from 14.7% last month and 5.3% one year ago.
15% is the fastest growth in business credit ever seen, and more than double the pre-Covid high growth of 7% seen in Apr16.1
https://app.qiinsights.com/apps/credit
APRA ADI Statistics
Having the lions share of the market, ADI stats closely align to total credit; business loan growth up 13.9%
Household deposits hit a new high, and while the growth rate is slowing, it is still at 9.87% annually
Business deposits, however, are falling for the 4th consecutive month, with $16b less in deposits compared to the high back in Jun22
Combining with strong growth in business loans, these are important stats to monitor the health of Australian businesses2
https://app.qiinsights.com/apps/monthly-adi
ABS Private Capital Expenditure
Equipment Capex was down 1.6% on the June quarter, but up 2.2% on the same time last year, to $16.3 billion
Building Capex was up 0.5% in the quarter and a slower 1.4% year on year
Non-Mining Equipment Capex sits in a strong position, albeit down from its 2018 highs, while Mining Capex has stagnated over the last 4 years; at a third of the capital expenditure seen in the mining boom peak in 2012.3
ABS Monthly CPI
October 2022 CPI is down from the Sep22 7.3% high, at 6.9%
Given that it is still well above average, we’d need to see a sustained multi-month move down to suggest inflation is being appropriately tackled
The monthly drop can be attributed to falls in prices of Fruit and Vegetables, Clothing & Footwear, and Recreation and Culture, among others, while growth in Housing and Transport costs are up again4
NAB Black Friday Sales Data
NAB transaction data showed an estimated $7.1 billion in spend across the 4-day Black Friday period last week
That’s a 20% rise on last year, with shoe stores up 146%, camera stores up 116%, electronic stores up 65% and clothing up 64%.
The spike in spend was mainly by online purchases, with online spend up 24% and spend at physical terminals up 11% on the week prior, according to NAB5
ABS Lending Indicators
As expected in a rising rate environment, new loans dropped again, down 2.7% in the month and down 17.1% annually in October 2022
That annual reduction has slowed slightly, compared with 18.5% in Sep22
That puts the market backed to Dec20 levels of new finance, but still above the long term average.6
https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/fin-agg/2022/fin-agg-1022.html
https://www.apra.gov.au/monthly-authorised-deposit-taking-institution-statistics
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/business-indicators/private-new-capital-expenditure-and-expected-expenditure-australia/latest-release
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/oct-2022
https://news.nab.com.au/news/black-friday-and-cyber-monday-sales-top-7-billion/
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/latest-release